- Standard Chartered re-upped its call for bitcoin to hit $200,000 next year after the coin topped six figures for the first time.
- Higher demand from retirement funds and global sovereign wealth funds could trigger more upside.
- The latest rally to $100,000 was spurred by excitement for Trump's election and pro-crypto policy stance.
Bitcoin has finally smashed through its $100,000 milestone, ending weeks of eager anticipation among crypto bulls.
According to Standard Chartered, this may just be the starting point of an even broader rally, with the apex token poised to double in value the next year.
Geoff Kendrick, the global head of digital assets research who correctly predicted bitcoin's jump to six figures, reiterated expectations for a rally to $200,000 by the end of 2025.
"We would turn even more bullish if BTC saw more rapid uptake by US retirement funds, global sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), or a potential US strategic reserve fund," he wrote in a note published Thursday.
Kendrick originally predicted bitcoin's rise to $100,000 in 2023, chiefly on the expectation that regulatory changes and declining volatility would boost inflows from institutional investors.
The trend will continue into 2025, amid increased demand from MicroStrategy and bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
Kendrick expects uplifted institutional demand to be stoked by the coming Trump administration. The president-elect campaigned on crypto-friendly promises and excited the industry with bitcoin-boosting ideas like a national bitcoin stockpile.
Alongside this, new options trading on bitcoin ETFs should accelerate demand from the "long-only segment," such as pension funds and retirement accounts.
So far, hedge funds and investment advisors dominate reported ETF holdings, while pension funds account for just 1%, Kendrick said.
"It is also worth noting that the total amount of US retirement accounts/pension funds is USD 40tn. Even 1% of that (USD 400bn) would be a huge inflow, potentially driving BTC prices significantly higher," he wrote.
The note said that MicroStrategy's buying spree has also spurred token upside and should accelerate next year. The business software firm has raked in 386,700 bitcoins and plans to raise $42 billion over the next three years to buy more.
"MSTR's success has spawned copycats; the largest of them is Japan-listed Metaplanet, which now holds just over 1,000 BTC. Corporates are also getting in on the act, with Germany-based Acurx Pharmaceuticals recently announcing a plan to buy USD 1mn worth of Bitcoin for its corporate treasury," Kendrick said.
"These flows are small but may add up over time."